2010.10.12 22:52

OBP is more simple than BA.

In The Simpsons, there's a funny little moment where Lisa is looking at her stats book and there's a confusing looking formula for OBP. It looked like so:

H + W + HBP / AB + W + HBP + SF

That does indeed look confusing, doesn't it. Probably would not look as confusing if you did this:

Times on Base / Plate Appearances (minus sac hits).

Yeah, that looks a bit simpler doesn't it? Frankly I don't even like the sac hit adjustment. Personally, I would just do times on base over plate appearances, simple as it gets. But even so, it's still pretty simple. OBP tells you as simply as possible how often you get on base, and how often you make an out.

Now, let's look at batting average. Most people think the system is simply "Hits / At-bats) and it is. But let's look at it in a different way.

TOB - W - HBP / PA - W - HBP - SF - SH.

There's your simple, not-advanced batting average statistic. At-bats are a completely invented number that removes a bunch of pretty important things -- especially walks, but also illogical things like sacrifice hits. You already know that if you BUNT a runner over from second to third it's a sacrifice and doesn't count in your batting average. But if you give yourself up by hitting a ball to the right side, and move the runner from second to third, it DOES count against your batting average. And so on.

일반적인 통념과는 달리 OBP는 (출루횟수/타석에 들어선 횟수)로 쉽게 구할 수 있는 직관적인 스탯이고, BA는 '타수'라는 새로운 개념을 도입해야 하는 인위적인 스탯이라는 Joe Posnanski의 주장. OBP가 BA보다 득점과의 상관 관계가 높다는 이유로 더 중요한 스탯이라는 사실은 많이 알려져 있지만, OBP가 훨씬 직관적인 스탯이라는 주장은 아주아주 신선하다. 역시 Posnanski.
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  1. 탄센 2010.11.04 14:12 address edit & del reply

    오랜만입니다 ^^ 군제대후 블로그 들어가봤는데 옮기셨더라고요 ㅎㅎ